1. THE VIRUS IS SPREADING RAPIDLY
The Covid-19 caseload has risen rapidly day to day, but here’s where things stood as of March 13. Many of the reported cases are still from the earlier peak in China. But while the number of new cases in China has fallen, the number of new international cases is rising, indicating that the epicenter of the problem has shifted from China to new places like Europe and the United States.
Note that the huge spike in new cases was due to improved data reporting from China; there was not one particularly bad day in the middle of February.
2. KNOW THE SYMPTOMS
The symptoms of Covid-19 vary from case to case, but the most common ones in China, from February data, are fever and dry cough (which are each seen in a majority of cases), fatigue, and sputum (the technical term for thick mucus coughed up from the respiratory tract).
If you have a fever and dry cough, that could be a good reason to contact a health professional and get yourself tested if possible.
3.DEATH RATES IN CHINA HAVE DECLINED OVER TIME
One glimmer of hope in this story is that Chinese medical authorities appeared to get better at treating infections and preventing death as the outbreak proceeded. “Even the first and hardest-hit province, Hubei, saw its death rate tumble as public health measures were strengthened and clinicians got better at identifying and treating people with the disease,” Vox’s Julia Belluz explains.
The rate didn’t go down on its own; China took drastic, even authoritarian measures to lock down affected areas and contain the virus’s spread so that the medical system was not overwhelmed.
4. OLDER PEOPLE IN CHINA HAVE BEEN THE ONES AT THE GREATER RISK OF DYING FROM COVID 19
The Spanish flu of 1918-’19, the most horrific pandemic in modern times, focused mainly on the young. It had biological similarities to a flu pandemic in the 1830s that gave some older people in the 1910s limited immunity.
Covid-19 is not like that. So far, deaths in China have been concentrated among older adults, who have weaker immune systems on average than younger people and have a higher rate of chronic illness. People of all ages with chronic medical conditions are also at higher risk. The risk of death is real for younger people as well, but older people are most at risk.
5.COVID 19 IS MUCH MORE SEVERE THAN AN ORDINARY FLU
It is tempting to compare Covid-19 to a more familiar disease: the seasonal flu. After all, the flu also has mild symptoms for most people, and can be dangerous and lethal among vulnerable populations like the elderly. President Trump even made this comparison recently.
But as the case fatality data shows, there’s no real comparison. About 6 percent of people 60 or older infected with Covid-19 die, according to the data from China we have so far; that’s over six times the fatality rate in the US for older people infected with the flu. The overall Covid-19 fatality rate may be 12 to 24 times the flu death rate. (Estimates for the fatality rate for Covid-19 vary, and they vary by region depending on response to the outbreak.)
6.EXPERTS CONFIRMS THAT COVID 19 IS ALSO MUCH MORE CONTAGIOUS THAN THE ORDINARY FLU
There’s another way that Covid-19 is a tougher adversary than the seasonal flu: Its R0 (“R nought”) is over 2, indicating that it’s more contagious than the typical flu. R0 estimates the number of people an average infected person spreads the disease to. “R0 is important because if it’s greater than 1, the infection will probably keep spreading, and if it’s less than 1, the outbreak will likely peter out,” the Atlantic’s Ed Yong explains. Covid-19’s R0 is substantially higher than 1, giving more reason for concern.
8. THE US HAS NOT TESTED ENOUGH PEOPLE
The Trump administration’s slow rollout of testing for coronavirus has become something of a national scandal, and it’s easy to see why when you compare the US testing rate to that of other affected countries. South Korea stands out for its rapid rollout of extensive testing, including through innovative drive-through testing programs.
Drive-through testing is being piloted in some parts of the US, like New Hampshire, but we still have a long way to go before we match South Korean and Chinese testing levels.
9. WHY CANCELLING EVENTS AND SELF-QUARANTINE IS SO IMPORTANT
Covid-19 has quickly made large-scale gatherings and conferences unpopular if not socially frowned upon. This change arrived quickly, and may seem jarring, but it’s easier to see the logic when you understand the theory behind this kind of “social distancing” policy. The key is to “flatten the curve”: slowing the rate of increase in infections so that you spread out the cases, even if the total number doesn’t change.
Flattening the curve slows the rate at which new cases arrive in hospitals, easing the burden on health care infrastructure and improving the odds that individual patients will survive.
Article originally appeared on vox.com